Articles

2019-10-01

Egypt and Arab Countries Think Tanks, Problematic Role and Future Foresight

The purpose to the birth of think tanks was mainly to support the decision maker since the beginning of the last Century (1902), where the United States of America evolved its role as per its evolving needs and agenda, and even contributed to transforming the decision maker's compass to issues falling outside the decision maker’s circle of attention and priorities, and highlighted many challenges and problems that were not taken into account. Think tanks became one of the most important players in policy-making, not only in the United States but also in different countries of the world, even in Asian countries with different democratic experiences, where Asian countries have viewed it as an important factor in establishing development and reform plans. One of the most prominent experiences in this context is Chinese think tanks, which have become one of the most important tools of influence and soft power through their forums discussing the role of think tanks outside the Chinese State as one major participant in their global initiative "Belt and Road" to connect the countries of three continents "Asia-Europe-Africa". If we look at some States' plans and visions for the future and their conditions, we will find that many of today's circumstances are the results of the work of think tanks contributing to shaping the future of their homelands and relations with the outside world. Israel's Plan 2020 and 2050 developed by Israeli think tanks are among the most prominent contributors to their situation, the Israeli land exchange theory and the US road map initiative presented by Bush Jr. were presented by Sharon at the Herzelia Conference in Israel called Israel's Mind. Likewise, the New Middle East Initiative of Shimon Peres and Bernard Lewis's blueprint for dividing the Arab region into small States, which was fully announced in 1980, the most recent of which was the alleged deal of the century on which American think tanks have worked since 1990 with war and peace studies, to which the most prominent contributors were Harvard University, the University of Florida, the University of Virginia and their respective think tanks. All this momentum requires us to stop and think repeatedly of the situation of our homelands and the serious challenges they face and even ask ourselves what we want for ourselves and what we have prepared for the future. Will we remain a puppet moved by the schemes of Western centers reflecting their States' agendas, or should we develop our perception and tools for movement, action and influence? All these questions require us to look ahead and discuss many important problems: -What are the roles of think tanks needed by Egypt and the Arab States as a whole in strengthening the bonds of sustainable development and achieving the 2030 plans and the 2063 plan of the African Arab States? What tools do Egyptian and Arab centers need to anticipate and even invade the future? -What do our Egyptian and Arab centers need to properly address the decision maker? Here I will introduce outlines and general but important headlines if we want to survive and even build our ability to meet the challenges of the future, which are carrying so many inherent risks and potential opportunities that need an out-of-the-box mind to steer policymaking on track, especially if we look at the new emerging phenomena and challenges such as the Mega Trends, which is an extreme phenomena of huge impact capable of changing the shape of the world, society, and cultures of peoples, requiring Multi Optional Thinking Approach and Multi-Dimensional Policies. Here is the answer to the first question. Planning for sustainable development must be carried out with the participation of think tanks that have to adopt multi-directional approaches in which alternatives are being developed to address several dimensions simultaneously. This requires learning about recent experiences in this context, developing policy papers and learning about studies that support the sustainable development system, but also contributing to the development of synthesized scenarios among the three dimensions of Egypt's Vision 2030 and preparing alternative scenarios in case one of them failed in coping with the inherent risks, not only to achieve the desirable targets, but in order not to wait for a scenario to fail and then think of alternative to put in place. It is also necessary for our centers to become brain laboratories and think tanks at the same through their programs to raise awareness, build cadres, provide consultations, and even contribute to the implementation of the policy alternatives they developed to bring views closer and reach possible solutions on the ground. This requires a vision into the future and even tools to invade the future space. Here comes the answer to the second question, our research centers need to have future foresight tools and future science methodologies, scenario writing, network analysis, brainstorming, wheel of futures, time maps, simulations, etc., as well as developing its research agenda to address the new matters in science where global think tanks are interested in new and more modern issues than we work on such as biological development, genetic development, genetic bomb talk and genetics boom to serve political goals and talk about the emergence of GENOPOITICS science during the early millennium, as well as the issues of technological development and artificial intelligence and its possession of human thinking and the development of plans and methodologies to invade the future, even if it was by blending those issues with the religious dimensions to resolve protracted conflicts and to introduce new designations with political implications, such as the new blueprint introduced by the University of Florida's Emergy Center called the Brahimi United States, in which the center was able to link the political initiative to several challenges together, through drafting a multidimensional policy blueprint of an integrated visions and dimensions, such as the environmental dimensions, resource scarcity, technology development modern technologies to use resources, Sunni-Shia conflict, terrorism and counter-terrorism and the failure of nation States to address education, health and social well-being as important entry points for federal regional integration that seeks to liquidate the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Sunni-Shia conflict that achieves the interests of conspiratorial forces such as Israel and Turkey in the region. In order to be able to build scenarios and develop multidimensional plans adapted to the requirements of the future, this needs capable, trained and creative cadres outside the usual, that believe in critical thinking and adopt it, with knowledgeable, intellectual and adventurous minds that think outside the box from various specialization that work all together in an integrated manner for the benefit of the country and the Arab homelands. Upon the availability of these minds, rises the problem of how to address decision-makers so that scenarios for the future do not stay just scenarios, but policies and strategies that can be applied on the ground. Here comes the answer to the third question. Think tanks need to have the tools to address the decision maker in a way that best suits the nature of work and space available to the decision maker. Here I mean having the methods of writing public policy papers, which despite their simplicity, are already representing a major challenge before Arab and Egyptian research centers, as they are unable to address the decision maker properly and cannot provide a summary of policies with viable alternatives, including how they would be applied and implemented on the ground and the possible time-frame to maximize the desired return. This requires a new thought that takes us from hope to achievable possibilities. This article comes with the birth of a new think tank, which its vision and mission outlines important features and determinants close to the foregoing, namely the Regional Center for Sustainable Development and Future Foresight Studies, which seeks to support decision-makers on issues related to sustainable development and future foresight in Egypt, the Arab region and the African continent, where it combines development and future foresight and presents itself as a Think Do Tank. Think Do Tank does not only present studies but aims at talking about innovative initiatives that address future issues and problems of achieving sustainable development in Egypt and the region, and bears the task of raising awareness with a view of creating the desired societal influence in the policymaking and decision-making system, even increasing the margin of influence through international partnerships that it seeks to build and aim to establish. If the target of this center is achieved according to the plan, I believe that it will be a good corner-stone for the independent centers that we need to integrate with the government centers to support the decision-making system in our homeland of Egypt and even to reveal the encountered challenges and work to against it in partnership with all State institutions. These centers represent the minds of the States and its free thinking towards future foresight. Prof. Dr. Hiba Gamal EL-Din Professor of Political Science at the National Planning Institute Member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs